Spatial modeling of provenance regions and future site suitability matching


Research WPs

This workpackage will develop the infrastructure for the spatial description of species and provenance based on site-based models and to make available climate matching tools for species and provenance selection in Europe. The development and web deployment of a climate matching tool will help identify material suitable for adapting forestry to reduce the impacts of climate change. This infrastructure project is an ideal environment for the development and deployment of site and climate matching tools and for the modelling of provenance/.breeding zone delineation maps for any tree species.

However for the purposes of demonstration of the infrastructure and the benefits of the tools, the project will provide 2 species as case studies:- Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menzies and ash (Fraxinus excelsior). The combination of a conifer and a broadleaved species, for which there is substantial information from provenance trials will make an important contrast and test for the infrastructure tools and provide information on the costs and benefits of including additional species in Europe.

WP8 diagram

Specific objectives include:

  • Implement growth trait databases (e.g. tree height) from pan European and national provenance trials
  • Compile climate data for provenance trial sites to enable the parameterisation of empirical and process-based models linking growth traits with climatic factors
  • Implement the parameterised models as tools for informing suitability zones through the EU infrastructure network
  • Deploy a European climate matching tool as a web-based infrastructure tool that links best (least squares) fitting contemporary global climate space with specific future climate projections for target sites in Europe
  • Produce guidance on species and provenance for future climate scenarios for different regions of Europe

Lead partner

Forest Research (FR)


Duncan Ray, FR